Chiefs' Playoff Hopes Slipping Despite Win Over Colts
Nov, 29 2025
Even after a dramatic 14-point comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts on November 23, 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a real threat: missing the playoffs entirely. What should’ve been a morale-boosting victory has instead exposed how fragile their postseason grip has become. Their playoff probability dropped from 57% to just 44% in a single week, according to Arrowhead Pride’s analysis published November 29, 2025. And here’s the kicker — they now have only a 5% chance to win the AFC West. For a franchise that’s been the model of consistency under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, this feels like a seismic shift.
Why a Win Feels Like a Loss
The game itself was classic Chiefs: Mahomes engineered a furious rally at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, overcoming a 14-point deficit to beat the Colts 31-28. But the scoreboard didn’t tell the full story. While the Chiefs improved to 6-6, the rest of the AFC didn’t wait around. The Denver Broncos surged to 9-2, and the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Chargers all won, tightening the playoff logjam.
Eight AFC teams now have a legitimate shot at the postseason — more than twice as many as in the NFC. The Chargers (28%), Texans (31%), and Jaguars (29%) are all ahead of or tied with the Chiefs (28%) in playoff probability. Even the Indianapolis Colts, who entered the game at 21%, now sit just one game behind Kansas City in the standings. It’s not just competition — it’s chaos.
The Odds Tell a Bleaker Story
Super Bowl LIX odds tell you everything you need to know. The Chiefs opened the season at +800 to win it all — good for sixth-best in the league. Now? They’re at +1600, a 100% increase in the odds against them. That translates to a 5.9% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, per Fox Sports. For context, that puts them as the 10th-best odds in the NFL… even though advanced models rank them as the 14th-best team. The disconnect is jarring. It suggests the league’s perception of Kansas City has shifted from dynasty to danger zone.
What’s worse? The Chiefs’ schedule doesn’t get easier. They’re favored in all three of their remaining games — against the Dallas Cowboys (November 27), Houston Texans (December 7), and Los Angeles Chargers (December 14). But being a favorite doesn’t guarantee anything anymore. The Chargers, in particular, are a trap: they’re 7-4, playing for their playoff lives, and they’ve already beaten the Broncos this season. A loss to them would be devastating.
Denver’s Rise and the Colts’ Tough Road
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are soaring. Their 9-2 record gives them an 80% chance to win the AFC West — up 14 percentage points from last week. They’re on track to claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed, even if they finish tied with New England. Why? Because of their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, partly thanks to the Las Vegas Raiders’ shocking win at Foxborough in Week 1. That early upset might haunt the Patriots come January — and indirectly hurt the Chiefs, who now have no margin for error.
And then there’s the Colts. Their remaining schedule is brutal: two games each against Houston and Jacksonville, plus matchups with Seattle and San Francisco. NFL.com called it “the second hardest remaining slate in the league,” behind only Green Bay. Yet, their eight wins still give them breathing room. They’re not just hanging on — they’re playing spoiler. And that’s exactly what the Chiefs can’t afford anymore.
What’s Next? Three Games, One Mission
The Chiefs’ season hinges on three games. Beat Dallas? Check. Beat Houston? Critical. Beat LA? Mandatory. Lose even one, and their playoff hopes become a longshot. Win all three, and they might sneak in as a wild card — but only if other teams stumble. The math is brutal: they need at least two wins, plus help from the Jaguars, Steelers, or Ravens losing at least two of their final three games.
And here’s the emotional weight: this isn’t just about stats. It’s about legacy. Mahomes and Reid have been the gold standard since 2019 — three Super Bowl appearances, one title. Now, they’re fighting to avoid their first missed postseason since 2018. That’s not just a statistical anomaly — it’s a cultural shockwave in Kansas City.
Why This Matters Beyond Kansas City
This isn’t just a Chiefs problem — it’s a league-wide trend. The AFC has become a free-for-all. No team is safe. No lead is secure. The days of predictable dominance by a single franchise are over. The Chiefs’ decline mirrors what’s happening across the conference: parity has arrived with a vengeance. If Kansas City misses the playoffs, it won’t be an outlier — it’ll be a sign of the new NFL reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Chiefs’ playoff probability drop so fast after a win?
Despite beating the Colts, the Chiefs’ playoff odds fell because eight AFC teams won that same week, tightening the race. The Broncos, Texans, and Chargers all improved their records, while the Chiefs’ tiebreakers and schedule strength didn’t shift in their favor. Probability models weigh net movement across the league — not just your own result.
What’s the worst-case scenario for the Chiefs?
The worst-case scenario is losing two of their final three games — especially to the Chargers or Texans — while the Jaguars, Steelers, or Ravens win at least two of theirs. That would leave the Chiefs at 7-8 or 8-8, likely behind four teams in the wild-card standings, and eliminate them despite a winning record.
Could the Chiefs still win the AFC West?
It’s nearly impossible. The Broncos lead by two games with a 9-2 record and an 80% probability of winning the division. For the Chiefs to overtake them, Denver would need to lose their final four games — including matchups against the 3-8 Commanders and 2-9 Raiders — while Kansas City wins all three of theirs and gets help from other teams. The math gives them a 5% chance.
Is Patrick Mahomes’ performance to blame?
No. Mahomes has been elite, throwing for 3,400 yards and 26 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions through 12 games. The issues are defensive — the Chiefs rank 25th in points allowed and 28th in third-down defense. The offense still carries them, but the defense can’t hold leads anymore. It’s a team problem, not a QB problem.
What’s the significance of the +1600 Super Bowl odds?
+1600 means you’d need to bet $100 to win $1,600 — a sign bookmakers see them as long shots. That’s a drastic fall from their +800 pre-season odds. It reflects not just their record, but their perceived vulnerability: inconsistent defense, tough schedule, and the rise of six other AFC contenders. Even if they make the playoffs, few believe they’ll go deep.
How does this compare to past Chiefs seasons?
Since 2018, the Chiefs have missed the playoffs just once — in 2018, when they finished 11-5 but lost the AFC West on tiebreakers. This is the first time since then they’ve had less than a 50% chance to make the postseason by Week 12. The pressure is mounting because expectations have been so high for so long — and now, history might be about to change.